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Thomas Sewell's blog

Apprenticeship in Business vs Sports

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I was reading a debate on education and signaling and commented:

At least one reason why more businesses don't do apprenticeship style programs is that it's illegal, as are unpaid internships.

Another legal issue is that you can't effectively contract for someone's labor AFTER you've taught them. You can train an employee and they can then leave for your competitor. Without the costs spent on training the employees, your competitor can pay them more than you can, everything else being equal.

The closest you'll see to apprenticeship is in (foreign) soccer and baseball clubs, where teams get a legal ownership interest in the players they develop. Since that tied-up-contract process is legal in those sports, most players are apprenticed to a team. In sports where because of the rules and/or legalities teams can't bind players like that, colleges play a much larger part as "farm" teams.

There's definitely a paper there for someone who wants to do some sports economics...

Is the FDA obsolete?

Is the FDA obsolete?

How can Underwriter Laboratories work so much faster to "approve" electrical devices as safe? It's because they are relied on by insurance companies that are insuring the liability of the products. Their incentive is to find any safety issues before a consumer sues over it.

Millions of people every year in the U.S. suffer from not having drugs sooner. Who is taking their suffering into account when following the current FDA process for drug approvals?

Worried about drug testing results in an FDA-less country?

Require companies to post an insurance bond to pay possible claims if the drug turns out to be bad. Insist on a transparent process via a third-party provider that is sufficiently underwritten, just like current insurance underwriting works.

At that point, people and Doctors can compare how much that third-party provider charged the drug company to insure the drug and do a quick proxy risk calculation accordingly.

If a company can make a convincing case that their drug is safe enough to avoid claims to their insurer, then it'll be a quick approval process and be on the market quickly.

If it's a dubious and/or highly risky drug, their insurer is going to be incentivized to either require a lot of extra honest studies to prove it's safe or pay a lot more money to offset the risk of claims.

If you insist on government involvement in the drug market, at least align the incentives for the participants with something more useful than the FDA's current "Don't ever approve a drug that has any chance of harm, no matter how much good it would do!"

"Every drug for cancer and other serious life-threatening illnesses that the Abigail Alliance has pushed for earlier access to in our eight-year history is now approved by the FDA! There is not one drug that we pushed for earlier access to that did not make it through the clinical trial process. Many lives could have been saved or extended, if there had been earlier access to these drugs!"
-Frank Burroughs, Founder of the Abigail Alliance

Ask yourself what they didn't think about...

While discussing Communism on EconLog, a comment from Patrick:

If you live in California and your credit card info is stolen by hackers, you will be notified by your CC company. If you live in Texas, you won't. Because they don't have to.

My response was:

Don't forget to tell the story of what is unseen in your example.

What percent of people are financially negatively affected by not being notified in Texas vs. what they would have saved if the State forced notifications? Now compare that to how much every single credit card user in CA is affected by higher fees and costs for owning a credit card as a result of the regulations.

Also, is there a legal rule that prevents a credit card company customer in Texas from including in their agreement with the company that they are to be notified of eventsbased on specified criteria? If not, why do you think people aren't demanding such changes to their CC contract and why aren't there CC companies putting them in and making it a selling point to choose their card?

I strongly suspect that the answer to your complaint isn't that the market has failed, it's that the government regulation in CA forces people to do something other than they'd choose to do on their own and that it doesn't take into acocunt WHY they wouldn't choose that option.

Without even understanding why the market equilibrium in CC contracts exists, it's completely irresponsible to arbitrarily decide to change it based on some feel-good theory about how credit card companies "should" behave based on only the very limited information available to a bureacrat or legislator.

Whenever you hear about some new regulation or consumer protection agency, understand that what the regulation does is limit what people are allowed to do. You should always ask yourself what they didn't think about when they wrote it. What will some of the unintended consequences be?

From their position of limited knowledge, most of the time the people creating these massive regulations don't even understand how it's going to affect them directly, let alone everyone else in the country.

Public Masters vs. Public Servants

If someone is your servant, they do what you want them to do. If you pay them, it's because you agree on what their work is going to be worth to you. That's called a trade.

If someone is your master, they tell you what to do. If you pay them, it's because they require you to pay them. Sometimes that's called tribute.

Now compare the elites in Washington to those two definitions. Don't especially the progressive Democrats, pushing a health care bill that is overwhelmingly opposed by the people, fit the definition of Master better than that of Servant?

Has Democracy in America led to the servant becoming the master? Or has it always been somewhat that way and the idea of "Public Servants" has always been a sham?

They argue that "it's for our own good" and that the elites know better than the people do what's good for them. That may describe a more "benevolent' slave master in the pre-civil war south, but it's hardly how anyone would describe a good servant.


"The master and servant relationship only arises when the tasks are performed by the servant under the direction and control of the master and are subject to the master's knowledge and consent." - Answers.com

Even that argument falls down pretty flat in the face of billions for bailouts and pork benefitting their friends and fellow elites. It's not their money that's getting spent. Who's in charge here, anyway? Who's supposed to benefit again?

How to NOT control rising health care costs

There is a discussion in a NY Times blog with proposals for controlling health care costs.

Most of the ideas make things worse, not better.

Quick summaries:

Jacob S. Hacker, political science academic: Use government price controls.

This quickly turns into shortages. Some political scientists still ignore basic economics.

Len M. Nichols, think tank health guy: Give more power to the Medicare commission to run everything.

Really? Because the Medicare folks already do such a bang-up job of making sure Medicare isn't going to lose trillions over time?

Gail Wilensky, medicare bureacrat who moved to an NGO: Tax more expensive health insurance more and give the secretary of Health and Human Services lots more power over everything.

Yep, Congress is too busy to make the important, hard decisions that the policy elite want to happen, so it's best to outsource it all to the "experts" in the executive. Better deniability for lousy decisions all around.

Joseph Antos, think tank academic: Fix the employer tax break, competition in state markets, give pricing information to patients, make Medicare compete with Medicare Advantage.

And here's our first set of proposals that would actually lower costs while improving things. The solutions are of the "tweak the existing system" mentality, but at least they are steps in the right direction.

Daniel Callahan, think tank guy: Medicare rationing and price controls on health insurance.

At least he comes right out in favor of legally limiting how much health care people get! I'm not sure that's going to be too popular. It's definitely not necessary for bureacrats to tell people how much they need. And of course, price controls always result in shortages anyway.

Leslie Greenwald, think tank academic: Setup rationing by the elite based on "evidence".

Some how I don't think she gets who should be making the decisions about how much health care people should consume...

Arnold Kling, economist: Use vouchers to move from third-party payers to patients as consumers.

Our second idea that would actually accomplish something positive. Not sure it's totally workable, but it's for sure a big improvement on the current system!

My answer to the same question is totally unrealistic in the current political environment, but just for the record:

  • Increase supply of medical care by removing legal obstacles. That means removing licensing restrictions (especially for Health care professionals trained in other countries) and removing AMA (Doctor's union) restrictions on the number of new health care workers trained every year. It also means severely limiting the FDA's ability to stop drugs from being produced. At most, they should evaluate and report on, rather then control the legality of drugs. That way Doctors and their patients could choose what risks to take based on their best information available.
  • Add more competition to the system by overriding state insurance regulators with a federal mandate that allows interstate commerce in insurance policies. Either end tax breaks for employer-provided plans or make sure that they are matched exactly by breaks for non-employer-provided plans. Prevent any regulators anywhere from regulating what is offered at what price in health insurance plans. Innovation in insurance service doesn't start in state health insurance regulation committees!
  • Allow prices to reflect demand as much as possible by providing methods for price transparency in service as well as allowing insurance as insurance instead of pay-for-service plans. Most of that would be taken care of by removing regulatory obstacles as above.

Health care is a solvable problem, but it's unlikely to be solved when most of the proposals to do so just provide more of the same ideas that created the problems in the first place.

When people in this country consume more books than people in another country, we don't lament that U.S. "book costs" are much higher than average and that "something must be done!" Some of this issue results from government distortions of the market for health care at State and Federal levels, but a lot of this issue is also a misunderstang of what's going on.

Soviet Thinking Makes Flu Shots Miss

Prices communicate information to producers and consumers.

When the price of a product goes higher, that tells producers to produce more. It also tells consumers to spend their money on something different, buying less of that product.

When it goes lower, that tells producers to produce less and comsumers to consume more in relation to other things they could spend their money on.

As supply and demand for a product changes, that affects the price. Even though all the possible consumers and all the possible producers don't directly communicate otherwise, the effect of their mass actions on prices is that about the right amount of a product is produced for how much people want or need of it compared to other things they could have spent their money on.

The above is named Supply and Demand and it's about the least controversial idea in economics.

Yet somehow governments persist in ignoring it in the same way the Soviets used to.

The seasonal flu vaccine and the swine flu vaccine are both having shortages when people want them, while both will have plenty available when it's too late to matter much.

Why?
Well, how do producers decide when they need to have what flu shots available for distribution?

The short answer is, they don't. Government bureacrats in a command-and-control style of economics (like the old Soviet Union used) decide the price and also tell producers how much of what to produce when.

Using that same method, the same problems routinely happen in the flu shot market. Shortages, followed by over supply and waste, followed by more shortages, followed by more waste, year after year it goes on as most years the bureacrats don't have the information provided by the simple, lowly, price mechanism of supply and demand.

The "experts" don't have more knowledge than the millions of people combined that would set the price in a flu shot market. Without a market, they don't know where to send flu shots for them to be used the best. They don't know how many are going to be demanded and when they're going to be needed.

Pricing Externalities
If the objective is to increase the number of people that get a flu shot above the number that would naturally get one, because there are benefits that are external to the market transaction. i.e. you think other people benefit from every person more that gets a flu shot, then that's an externality and you can make a case that there should be a price subsidy. Most externalities are negative, meaning an aconomist would fix that by adding to the price in order to pay for it, but in this case the health authorities seem to think there is a positive externality.

The way to solve that externality isn't to take flu shots out of a market and turn the decisions over to a bureacracy. If you make the price producers are paid go up, but the price consumers pay go down, you'd get more production and more people and clinics would buy flu shots.

So if the objective is to be most effective, while also encouraging more people to get a flu shot, then the simple method is for the bureacrats to stay out of it all except to offer a set rebate or subsidy for each flu shot sold and used. Whatever the amount of that is will determine how many more people will get a flu shot.

Here's an extreme example to illustrate this. If the government gave $50,000 per flu shot used to producers and another $50,000 to the person that got that flu shot, I'd guess that there would still be a handful of people in the country that didn't get a flu shot, but not very many. Reduce the amounts and less people decide to sacrifice the time and other resources to get involved, but the same basic principle holds. The principle of Supply and Demand.

Big oil caught paying for climate science that agrees with them!

The actual newsweek headling was referenced by Marginalrevolution as " Soros puts up $50 million to change economics."

Newsweek calls it "Converting the Preachers".
Try rephrasing that as:

"Cheney puts up $50 million to change climate science." describing an attempt to create a new think tank funded by the oil industry to generate new "science". That should get a similar effect on the opposite political persuasion, except of course that, and the headline of this article, isn't actually happening.

My headline is a little misleading, because it's meant to make a point.

For Soros this is just part of purchasing influence to promote his political policies and power. He's does that a lot, in ways too numerous to enumerate here. He's upset that somehow large swaths of economists have managed to stay out of the Cathedral and have not yet turned 91% Democrat. Why, it seems that economists are closer to only 50% Democrats and most of those still prefer market solutions to government solutions!

In Praise of Commercial Culture and the Internet

I'm currently reading Tyler Cowen's 1998 book "In Praise of Commercial Culture". Cowen is better known as an economist writing over at Marginal Revolution. I'm also re-reading his 2007 book "Discover Your Inner Economist" at the same time. Maybe it's just the different target audiences, but I suspect Tyler would be the first to admit that his book writing style has gotten a lot better in the intervening 9 years.

In the process of explaining the influence of capitalism and wealth on art, he mentions a lot of artists in passing. Most I knew about, but many I hadn't. In 1998 Cowen couldn't have anticipated the process I've been going through while reading these books. I've actually been able to look up and sample the work of artists, from painters to rock bands, on the internet and get a taste of their work immediately and for free. That process, aided by things like wikipedia, Amazon's mp3 store (with it's music previews), plus tons of full-length videos with audio on youtube, is an amazing example of what in the book is a cultural optimism that allows for modern and historical art catering to all sorts of niche markets to be so much more accessible now than it ever has been in the past.

One of the facts referenced in the book is that Charles Perrault wrote "Mother Goose" in a deliberate attempt to match Aesop's Fables. I anticipate that my wife, currently teaching classic fables to the kids, will find that interesting. There's tons of similar tidbits in it.

Cowen talks about how because it was a big budget movie and thus had to appeal to a larger audience, the studio forced a happy ending on Blade Runner, but that when the movie was reissued in a Director's cut the original ending could be restored. I know that now it sounds amazing, but in 1998 DVDs weren't in commercial use. Laser Disc was supposed to be the next big thing. Ten years later, we'd fully expect that if the Director preferred a different cut to his movie, we'd get both versions plus a couple of voice-over explanations all on the same DVD and they'd throw in the deleted scenes and alternate endings!

I'm also picking up music tips from the "Possess All the Great Art Ever Made" chapter of his more recent book. He talks about how music tastes changes as individual identities change from different time periods and geographical regions and suggests trying out the best artists of all sorts of different types.

Tonight I've found lots to like. I also just figured out that youtube has tons of music in the form of videos... I know, slow to catch on, that's me.

Sometimes the familiar can be new again when seen through a different style of music. Also search for gamelan on youtube for some cool south-east asian hits.

Those guys are entertainers! Of course, it stands to reason that with literally billions of people to choose from, there are going to be a lot of great musicians (and other professions) available in the area.

A little closer to home, sometimes you just need to shake your head and tap your toes.

How could anyone not like that, whoever they are, unless they'd never heard it?

How are you paying for all the no-cost stuff again?

Barack Obama: "Reducing the waste and inefficiency in Medicare and Medicaid will pay for most of this plan."
Arnold Kling: "And if we don't pass this plan, does he intend to keep the waste and inefficiency, out of spite?"

This little exchange illustrates a couple of problems with Obama's logic. First, notice the false dichotomy implied by Obama and exposed by Kling's comment. It's implied that the savings and the plan must go together, when nothing actually requires them to. Second, notice the implication his plan costs money, even though he elsewhere claims it doesn't.

It's not a sacrifice or a trade-off if it's something you wouldn't want to do anyway. "I'm going to give up paying someone to poke me in the eye so that I can afford to eat out for lunch" just doesn't have the same compelling sense of sacrifice as "I'm not off buying new shoes so that I can afford to eat out for lunch".

Obama's comment also nicely illustrates how progressives can get away with things that the media will never call them on, when their opponents would be instantly demonized. If a Republican president or congressman had suggested that we should reduce "the waste and inefficiency in Medicare and Medicaid", most of the press would be reporting this under a headline like, "Obama advocates budget cuts to programs that provide health care to millions of poor and elderly!"

See this Washington Post Story as an example. You'd have quotes in news articles like the actual news quote "... proposed cuts to Medicare would hurt older and disabled Americans and take a wrecking ball to many essential hospitals across the country". That was for a proposal to slow the rate of growth from 7% to 5% by eliminating waste, not even an actual cut.

What you won't hear Obama nor the Democrats talk about is what their plan will cost you in insurance premium increases. Most of the "reforms" in their "exchange" plan have already been implemented in several states. They've driven premiums up in those states. The government cost analysis of the bill won't reflect those costs, since you pay that directly, not indirectly to support the federal budget.

Some Driving Considerations for Spreading the Wealth

Wealth can be measured in many ways, including material possessions and time for leisure.

Wealth of most types can be destroyed by automobile accidents, but that's not the only way..

There is also a lot of wealth wasted while people wait for other cars. If you waste 10 minutes in traffic a day that you didn't have to, that costs you 60 hours of your time a year. Could you have fun with an extra 60 hours of vacation every year? How about another 60 hours worth of pay? How about multiplying that by everyone else who drives?

So please consider the following to assist in minimizing wealth destroying and time wasting events:

If you are at one of those newfangled round circles in the road, there is a yield sign to your right and a bunch of cars stopped behind you, please consider that your foot may be on the wrong pedal.

If you are on a multi-lane road like a freeway, there are no cars immediately in front of you and any cars to the right of you are traveling withing a few mph of you, you might be in the wrong lane.

If you are in a similar situation, except the cars to the right of you are moving faster than you are, you should seriously consider that you might be in the wrong lane. A good rule of thumb is that if the cars you are supposed to be passing (they call it a "passing lane") are traveling faster than you are, then you aren't actually passing them.

If you see a sign that announces a brief passing lane ahead and then another that says, "Keep right except to pass", please consider that they may be talking to you and not the car that's been tailgating you for miles.

If you are stopped at one of those red eight-sided signs and you arrived at the same time or before the car to your left, feel free to start to proceed as soon as possible after you have stopped.

If you are going straight at a four-way stop and someone else is turning left from the opposite direction, it's not considered polite to stop in the intersection and wave them on. It's actually quite rude, because they are likely waiting for you to clear the intersection. The basic rule is that left-turn cars turn just behind cars going straight when they both traverse the intersection at approximately the same time.

If you are entering a freeway or highway via an on ramp and highway traffic is moving at the same speed as you are, please consider slowing down or speeding up 5-10 mph in order to create a speed differential. You'll find it much easier to find a hole in traffic to merge into.

When turning onto a multi-lane road, there may be other cars that wish to use the other lanes at the same time you only really need one of them. Please be considerate and turn left into the left-most lane and right into the right-most lane. If the lane you really want is a different one than that, you can then signal and change lanes as normal once you are in the correct turning lane.

You do signal every time you change lanes, don't you? Before actually moving into the new lane?

If there is a middle turn lane and you want to turn left, please continue at the normal rate of speed until you have entered it, then slow down for your left turn.

If you are turning left at an intersection and the light is turning yellow, make sure you are as far into the intersection as you can be and still yielding to oncoming traffic. Remember, "three cars go", not just you.

Even if the light is green, if it doesn't look like there is going to be room for you to get through the intersection because the car in front of you is stopped, please consider that other people may want to use that same intersection in a few seconds traveling perpendicular to you.

If there is a sign that says, "No stop required" because the lane continues on by itself after the turn, that's a big hint as to which pedals you should and should not be using. (Yes, I'm watching you, people visiting St. George from I-15.)

If the light is green and everyone else is moving, you might have your foot on the wrong pedal. If you are stopped at a stoplight and don't know what color the light is because you're too busy with something else, please sell your car as soon as possible.

Everyone, feel free to add other advice I've missed as a comment.

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